SocraticGadfly

November 06, 2024

Some non-twosider election wrap thoughts, starting with third parties

Cross-posted in moderately shorter version at Substack.

Per the header, and per my voting, we’re going to start at looking at the two third parties in America, the Greens and Libertarians. (Per my verbiage, and that of at least some political scientists, the other parties are “minor parties.”)

And we’re going to start with that subhed.

I’ve not seen the national numbers yet, but here in Texas, yes, the Libertarian party imploded indeed.

Green Party presidential candidate Jill Stein finished ahead of the Libertarian nominee, Chase Oliver. Yes, you read that right.

Stein took 0.73 percent to Oliver's 0.6 percent.

In 2020, Libertarian Jo Jorgensen took 1.12 percent in Texas to Howie Hawkins’ 0.30 percent. The ratio was the same in 2016, and in 2012, with both parties much higher in 2016 because it wasn’t in the middle of COVID, which hurt third parties and minor parties, and it wasn’t apocalyptically shaded by both duopoly parties.

Then, it was 3.16 percent for Gary Johnson vs 0.80 percent for Stein. In 2012, without many voters thinking Barack Obama and Mitt Romney were as crappy as Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, it was 1.1 percent Johnson, 0.3 percent Stein, here in Texas.

Average 2012 and 2016 and you get 0.55 percent. Stein outperformed that, despite being a three-time retread with investment ethics problems. Side note: Yes, she whiffed on not knowing the exact number of Members of Congress. And? AOC constitutionally whiffed on wanting to cut Congresscritter pay during a shutdown. Take that, #BlueAnon.

Do that same averaging for Libertarians and you’re at 2.13 percent. Oliver MASSIVELY underperformed that.

I suspect the Mises Mice cuck-up in the Libertarian Party has borne fruit. I have yet to see national numbers, but, I have another state number to reflect that.

Here in Texas, the Greens had just one statewide candidate besides Stein. Eddie Espinoza was running for a spot on the Railroad Commission of Texas. Libertarians also had a candidate, Hawk Dunlap.

Both finished well ahead of their parties’ presidential nominees, but the main comparative takeaway is that Espinoza had 2.75 percent to Dunlap’s 2.6 percent.

The second main takeaway is that, under the stipulations of a 2021 Texas Legislature bill pushed by state Sen. Drew Springer, that requires third parties to break 2 percent in a statewide vote once every five cycles to keep statewide ballot access, Greens, instead of facing a do-or-die in 2026, are now good through 2032.

Will they get a better gubernatorial candidate in 2026? That remains to be seen. They had Brandon Parmer the non-candidate in 2014, ran nobody in 2018, and had gun nut, antivaxxer and more Delilah Barrios in 2022. (I think I held my nose and voted Parmer in 2014; with no Green, I undervoted in 2018; I undervoted in 2022.)

For that matter, will the GP national get a better presidential candidate in 2028? The list of candidates a year ago, at the time the party recruited Cornel West, sucked canal water. (And, given the reality of Cornel West, that “sucked canal water” includes him.) Before Stein bit the bullet / decided to pay off 2016 FEC-incurred debt, and after West stepped aside, no “names” like Margaret Flowers or Matthew Hoh stepped forward.

Nationally, confirming possible LP meltdown? At Ballot Access News, Winger says the Georgia LP lost state ballot access, falling below 1 percent on the presidential vote. Let us not forget that Chase Oliver is FROM Georgia. And, as part of that, let us note that Stein was nearly even with Oliver there. Considering the old Georgia GP getting the boot after 2020, and related issues, for these results to have Oliver at just 0.39 percent, and Stein to be close at 0.35 percent? Horrible, on the Libertarian side. 

Here in Tex-ass, maybe legacy media focusing on Stein gave her a boost. But, in Georgia, a swing state and the post-2020 fallout I noted? No, that's on the LP. That's implosion.

Also, as mentioned in an email discussion with Jordan from IPR? The Libertarian Party's national convention flirtation with Trump probably contributed to the implosion. While it may not have been totally driven by the Mises Mice, it certainly was in part. The New Hampshire LP's early-on actual endorsement of Trump was also an underminer. All the other shenanigans, both by LP National's board and by some state parties, after the convention only added to this.

I can't help but think that, even though they didn't do as I thought and run a presidential candidate in states where they had a party line ballot access, either directly or indirectly, that the newly formed Liberal Party has plenty of room to build.

==

To the duopoly-focused side now.

There will be a separate piece on the “blame game” for Democrats. Various Democratic intelligentsia are already talking about some failures (and unsheathing long knives for internecine warfare in some cases), while ignoring a whole set of more obvious failures.

One observation, from a note I posted last night, to whet the appetite on that?

One interesting issue is that this election WAS like 1968 in many ways, despite Dems trying to avoid a Chicago repeat. (It’s too bad there weren’t actual protests this time around when Harris and the DNC stiffed Palestinian supporters.)

You have a sitting Veep trying to succeed a one-term Prez who stepped down less than willfully, with the Veep not removing themselves from the president’s shadow. That said, Harris more willingly stayed in line with Biden than Humphrey did with LBJ. That also said, other things aside, the Hump was a better candidate.

Three other observations?

First, Allan Lichtman’s 13 Keys, discussed in my busted prediction of last Saturday, is officially garbage. That said, he’s repeatedly claimed that he actually got 2000 right but Bush v Gore made him wrong. However, he refuses to admit that only the Electoral College made him right in 2016.

Second, that Des Moines Register poll claiming Harris was up 3 points among likely voters in Iowa? Obviously, it was totally broken. Interestingly, in multiple “red” states, including Religious Right, but not libertarian, red-state Missouri, abortion protection state constitutional amendments and referendums PASSED. And, support for these issues translated not one bit into support for Harris or state-level statewide Democratic candidates. This type of ticket-splitting, voting for the party that put you in the position where you pass a referendum to contain them? Innnnteresting.

Pollster J. Ann Selzer said "I'll be reviewing data" after that total bust. She does note what I noted in my busted prediction, that she had neither candidate above 50 percent.

Third? People who I didn’t think would go in BlueAnon attack mode have. I originally was going to run that as part of the cross-post at Substack, just like the first sentence in this paragraph, then thought of an ellipsis-truncated version, then ran nothing. Here, I'm running it, but adding the name of Ken Silverstein.

Fourth? Lots of commenters at Kuff are in denialism about Gaza. And, ConservaDems like Greg Summerlin are just nutters in general. No, Greg, there's no need to comment here any more; I refudiated all your past wrongness.

Ken Paxton trying to cut off Robert Roberson completely

Kenny Boy's latest? Rather than telling it to accept video testimony rather than an in-person meeting, it's pushing the House Jurisprudence Committee to accept no testimony at all. Per that piece, it's "amazing" the selective memory Paxton has for the state's disciplinary rules of professional conduct.

Here's my writing about its initial subpoena intervention.

The Trib has a primer on Robert Roberson's case history.

November 05, 2024

And another reason to be frustrated with Claudia de la Cruz

If I had wanted to vote for investments hypocrite Jill Stein instead of the Party for Socialism and Liberation's de la Cruz, as I actually did, I would have done so — I would have voted Stein instead.

Now, I see on Shitter that last week (way too late for early voters), her campaign called for an unofficial fusion with Stein's in some states and Cornel West's (gack!) in others.

I told her last night that if she's the PSL's nominee in 2028, she's not getting my vote. This is the last straw in several.

The worst previous straw was her refusing to attend a third-party presidential debate in Los Angeles, to which she had been invited. She would have had to pay airfare from NYC and a hotel, as well as get a day or two off work. But, that would have been it. IMO, it would have been a big visibility boost to the party. But, she didn't show. 

If this were a parliamentary government, we could talk about pre-election fusion for legislative seats. (We still can, in the US.) We could talk about coalitioning in such a parliament after elections. (Independents do that in the US House and Senate.)

But, in a strong-presidential system, even if you admit you're a "spoiler," no, you run as yourself.


Texas Progressives have last election thoughts

Kenny Boy Paxton, having lost this year, is already teeing up a new lawsuit for 2025, suing the State Fair for its gun ban, and has private plaintiffs with him this time.

The Texas GOP killed Nevaeh Crain, IMO. That said, national Democrats, in years when they controlled Congress and Clinton, Obama or Biden was president, assisted to some degree by not doing more for federal legal protection.

The RRC wants $100 million from the Lege to tackle blowouts. That's a drop in the bucket.

Tarrant GOP head Bo French is even nuttier than its county judge.

What "foreign adversaries" are trying to buy ranchland in the Big Bend area, Lindsay Dawn Buckingham?

"Shock me" not just that state Sen. Phil King is in bed with Oncor, but how deeply he's in bed.

Shitter is coming to Tex-ass with its headquarters, and like everything else Elmo Musk has done with the company, that looks like it will look like shit.

Off the Kuff contemplates a blue Tarrant County, now and in 2026. (Contra Kuff, IMO this is Beto's fault.)

SocraticGadfly looks at the Muslim-American and Arab-American election break points.
 
Neil at the Houston Democracy Project said with the election at hand, know your rights as a protester. The First Amendment is your permit to protest.
 
The Current reports on a small town candidate for City Council who got harassed for being a burlesque performer.
 
The Texas Signal looks back at that classic movie celebrating fifty years, The Texas Chainsaw Massacre.
 
Texas 2036 is all about investing in the state's water resources. 
 
 Lone Star Left relates the spooky tale of an old unsolved murder. 
 
Raise Your Hand Texas advises teachers how they can get involved in the upcoming legislative session.

November 04, 2024

A few last pre-election tidbits

The Texas GOP is determined to use immigration bullshit as a hammer to "turn Texas red" in border counties. The Trib and ProPublica have the details from Val Verde County (Del Rio). The Observer looks at larger border politics battles in Cameron County. Isn't that the base of TDP head Gilberto Hinojosa? It also looks Hudspeth County, outside of elections, where the GOP incumbent is pushing back on some nuttery but not all, and other border-county sheriffs.

Even Danny Goeb refudiates Lara Trump and her lies that Tex-ass voting machines are flipping votes.

A&M International student who is relatively uninvolved in local politics (and not a US citizen anyway) gets butt-hurt that Webb County wouldn't make the university a voting site.

T for Texas and T for trans? Anti-trans ads look like Havana Ted Cruz's preferred path to victory. And yes, per the Observer, he's likely to win.

November 03, 2024

Exclusive! Apparent transcript of Trump's vetting interview of JD Vance

It seems incredible, just 48 hours before Election Day, but, we've received an anonymous copy of what purports to be a transcript of Donald Trump interviewing J.D. Vance before offering him the vice-presidential nomination.

This is NOT the Vance background check dossier, allegedly hacked by Iran, distributed to news media around the country and eventually published by Ken Klippenstein.

No, this is — purportedy — Trump interviewing Vance for the vice-presidential nomination. The transcript is unedited, other than putting Trump's words in italics.

“Usha? Yeah, she’s a Sambo, Mr. President. But, that’s OK. She’s good to me, and she knows her place. You know, they’re as smart as a whip, like darker-skinned Jews ...

"Boy, you got that right. Like my son-in-law. Scary. You'd almost think he's my son, but maybe he got some of that from osmosis with Ivanka. Besides, you have to get up pretty early in the morning to pull a con on a real con man."

... Or like Chinese without the slant eyes. Like Amy Chua. She was smart enough to see that Usha would be an Indian Tiger wife for me.” 

“You’re right, JD. On those Chinese? That Xi Jinping? Almost as smart as me. People who get lots of power do it only by being smart. Hitler was almost as smart as me.”

“Well, the Indians are Aryans, Mr. President.”

“That, what’s his name, Mode?”

“Do you mean Modi, Mr. President?”

“Yes, that’s it, just like I said.

“Smart as a whip. Some people would call him a fascist, I guess. I just think he’s good at keeping Muslims in control. Maybe he’ll build a wall with Pakistan. Wouldn’t be as beautiful as mine, but it might be OK.”

“You know who’s really smart?”

“Besides me? Putin. We talked about it.”

“It’s amazing how many people underestimate him, just like you get underestimated, Mr. President.”

“You got that right.”

“Thank you.”

“Speaking of Indians, why isn’t Commala as smart as a whip? Did her Black genes overwhelm her Indian genes?”

“Boy, that’s a good guess, Mr. President. A good guess indeed.”

"You know, the smart ones know their place. Like Ben Carson at that debate. He knew to wait for me. Or that Donald guy. Not Donald Duck but ... "

"You mean Mr. Donalds? The Congressman?"

"Yes, that's it. Knows who he is and what his place and role is."

"Mr. President, once again, your analysis of people, and how smart people work around you and fit in with you, is impeccable."

“Vance, that’s why I like you and want to offer you this job. You think like me.”

“Mr. President, I’m sorry I wasn’t smart enough to do that in 2016. I’m glad I am now.

“And? You name it, and I’m your point man. Single women, cats, immigration, how immigrants feel about cats? I’ll be on it.”

“You’re my kind of guy, unlike that weasel Pence that some of the Religious Right talked me into.

“And, one final thing.”

“Yes, Mr. President?”

“You’re in the Senate, right? Whatever needs to be done on Jan. 6, 2025, to make sure all those electoral votes are counted correctly, and there’s no Democratic steal, I’m counting on you.”

“I’ll do what needs to be done.”